Jobs

Year-end outlook supported by job trends—despite weak places

The holiday spending outlook is being supported by a post-hurricane rebound in job gains in most industries except retail—and despite persisting weak pockets across the middle and Northeast parts of the country. An emerging recovery in the energy and mining sector…


Outlook supported by job gains despite weak spots

The Fall outlook for consumer spending is being bolstered by sustained job gains at a national level—although pockets of weak growth persist through the country’s mid-section and Northeast states. The weak spots—from Kansas and Wyoming to Alaska and West Virginia—remain depressed…


job trends

Job gains suggest spending focus on travel, eating out

U.S. job growth in April returned to the strong pace of the start of the year, but the regional momentum remains mixed and skewed toward the Western and Southeastern states. A pickup in energy and mining-related jobs among goods industries is…


job trends

What do the latest jobs trends tell us about the outlook?

A post-election rally may be the best hope for a near-term outlook that appears relatively weak—modest at best—as the latest jobs data appear to confirm. Of most interest in the jobs data is a slight uptick in the unemployment rate and...
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job trends

Why July’s job gains do not ensure a strong outlook

Why will the U.S. spending outlook remain unevenly modest despite sustained strong job gains in July? It’s true that the gains are an encouraging sign. They show that the job market is overcoming the disruptions—primarily labor-strike and weather-related—that dramatically depressed the...
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job trends

What do strong June job gains tell us about the outlook?

U.S. job gains were strong in June after a weak May. What does that mean for the outlook for the consumer economy? Well, it means that the true growth trend is neither strong nor weak—and is easily disrupted by weather, labor...
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macro trends

Recession Watch: The Measures to Watch Post Brexit

In the summer of 2007, I used insights from two particular economic measures to warn of the recession risk that later became a reality by early 2008. Given the anxiety raised by the “Brexit” vote, it’s a good time to see...
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