Forecasts

Consumer price trends

Inflation is the key economic threat to the outlook

The consumer goods outlook is facing a threat that is just as important as e-commerce—and that is much more than an Amazon effect. Rising price inflation will be a double-edged threat to the consumer goods outlook through 2025. The two sides…



macro trends

Consumers lead slowdown in Q1 economic growth

The U.S. economy slowed in the first quarter of 2018, driven to a large extent by a big slowdown in consumer spending. The results confirm a post-holiday return to less robust consumer spending (more here) and raise some concern about the…


Ecommerce gains show challenge to post-holiday outlook

The ecommerce impact on the strong holiday is clearer in the latest retail data: In-store holiday sales improved despite the strongest ecommerce gains in six years. The data also give a sign—albeit mixed—of a January letup from the holiday gains, which…


macro trends

U.S. economy on track to sustain growth in 2018

The U.S. economy appears to be on track to sustain economic growth into 2018 based on insights from the latest GDP data through the fourth quarter of 2017. The outlook is particularly encouraging given the latest uptick in the data excluding…


Holiday retail sales and shopper insights

Initial Holiday Results: Much better than expected

Holiday sales for November-December approached a 6% gain, which outpaced forecasts of a better holiday and year-ago performance by as much as two percentage points or more. The strength was evident across all types of brick and mortar stores—not just online….


macro trends

A Better Holiday – Except at Apparel Stores

In-store holiday retail sales will improve from last year except at apparel stores—but gains will continue to benefit e-commerce retailers most of all. See the complimentary report at this link for more detail on the holiday forecast by MacroSavvy™, which addresses:…