Economy – General Trends


macro trends

Consumers lead slowdown in Q1 economic growth

The U.S. economy slowed in the first quarter of 2018, driven to a large extent by a big slowdown in consumer spending. The results confirm a post-holiday return to less robust consumer spending (more here) and raise some concern about the outlook—even if market analysts discount the overall economic letup as temporary, Below are highlights […]

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macro trends

U.S. economy on track to sustain growth in 2018

The U.S. economy appears to be on track to sustain economic growth into 2018 based on insights from the latest GDP data through the fourth quarter of 2017. The outlook is particularly encouraging given the latest uptick in the data excluding…


macro trends

Recession Watch: The Measures to Watch Post Brexit

In the summer of 2007, I used insights from two particular economic measures to warn of the recession risk that later became a reality by early 2008. Given the anxiety raised by the “Brexit” vote, it’s a good time to see what these indicators are telling us about recession risks today. “Vulnerable” is the word […]

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