@Work


Retail sales remain on pace toward a better holiday

Retail sales were kept on pace toward a better holiday by October sales results—although sales gains continue to favor e-commerce and in-store sales at homegoods retailers. Topline sales in October grew at the 4% or better pace expected for the holiday…


Year-end outlook supported by job trends—despite weak places

The holiday spending outlook is being supported by a post-hurricane rebound in job gains in most industries except retail—and despite persisting weak pockets across the middle and Northeast parts of the country. An emerging recovery in the energy and mining sector…


spending confidence trends

Confidence reverts to improving trend toward holiday

Spending confidence rebounded across key generations in October—reverting to an improving outlook heading toward the December holidays—as hurricane and other weather effects subsided. Millennials and Gen X led the confidence pickup, which are the two groups most likely to drive discretionary…


macro trends

A Better Holiday – Except at Apparel Stores

In-store holiday retail sales will improve from last year except at apparel stores—but gains will continue to benefit e-commerce retailers most of all. See the complimentary report at this link for more detail on the holiday forecast by MacroSavvy™, which addresses:…


Q3 retail sales on pace for a better holiday

The pace of retail spending looks a bit stronger through the third quarter—between 3.5% and 4.0% growth—in the wake of September results and prior-month data revisions. The third-quarter results put retail sales on pace for a better holiday this year compared…


Consumer price trends

Twin threats from price inflation and deflation

Although core consumer price pressures remain subdued, food and fuel price inflation represent a growing threat to consumer spending—especially among lower-income households. In the retail goods sector, the threat is from falling prices as much as rising prices. Deflation in (retail)…