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job trends by state metro market
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INSIGHTS
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Retail spending lifted by strong May and revisions

The U.S. retail sales trend in 2018 suddenly looks stronger as a result of a healthy month of May and upward revisions to prior months as reported by the government. Sales are up about 4.5% year-to-year for the first five months. That’s more than half a percentage point stronger than the (YTD) pace reported a […]

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spending confidence trends

Confidence affirms tepid spending outlook—except for Millennials

The outlook for consumer spending remains tepid as confidence to spend over the next 90 days again moved sideways in May—with Millennials showing the only notable sign of improvement. As a result, retail spending should keep to the slower pace that has emerged in recent months (more on retail spending here). The Millennial bounceback from […]

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macro trends

Consumers lead slowdown in Q1 economic growth

The U.S. economy slowed in the first quarter of 2018, driven to a large extent by a big slowdown in consumer spending. The results confirm a post-holiday return to less robust consumer spending (more here) and raise some concern about the outlook—even if market analysts discount the overall economic letup as temporary, Below are highlights […]

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Consumer price trends

Price pressures add to headwinds, weigh on retail

The economic headwinds appear to be gaining strength with price inflation edging higher through early 2018 as measured by the Consumer Price Index. The brunt of the headwinds likely will be felt by the (retail) goods sector of the economy, where flat or falling prices leave the retail sector most vulnerable to threats to demand […]

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Weaker job gains may weigh on outlook

Job gains are on a slowing trend through early 2018—except for a strong February—and becoming further concentrated in the West and Southeast. The slowing trend is the result of weakness in certain markets as much as the result of a tight labor market. Bad weather contributed to weak job gains in March, but it remains […]

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